NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Ravens' losses come after building big leads. Will it cost them in AFC playoff race?

In all three of their losses this season,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center the Baltimore Ravens have led in the fourth quarter.

Not closing games is a trend that has become all too common for the Ravens over the past two seasons.

"We just have to finish the game," quarterback Lamar Jackson said following the latest Ravens defeat, a 33-31 loss to the Cleveland Browns in which they held a 15-point second-half lead.

Luckily for Baltimore, the team woke up Monday morning as the AFC's No. 2 seed, the same playoff position it had entering the weekend. In a tight AFC North, the Ravens are still in first place.

But they could be mounting a stronger challenge to the Kansas City Chiefs for the top seed if not for a trio of collapses that were largely avoidable. According to ESPN's win probability tracker, the Ravens had a 88.1% chance of winning or better in the fourth quarter in all three of their losses at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts (88.1), Pittsburgh Steelers (90.3%) and the Browns (97.1%).

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In games Jackson has started at quarterback over the last two seasons, the Ravens are 15-7. They had a 75% chance of winning in all of them, and had a 90% chance or better in the fourth, according to ESPN's win probability tracker.

On Sunday, Baltimore jumped out to a six-point lead 40 seconds into the game thanks to safety Kyle Hamilton's athletic tip-balled drill that turned into an interception returned for a touchdown. Four minutes later, undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell ripped off a 39-yard run on a draw play for six more points. The Ravens led 17-3, 24-9 and 31-17 – that margin following Gus Edwards' touchdown rush with 11:34 remaining – at various points. Deshaun Watson completed all 14 of his pass attempts in the second half, the defense allowed him to make game-winning plays with his legs, and Dustin Hopkins nailed a field goal as time expired.

According to ESPN Stats and Information, no NFL team since 2000 had won while trailing for that long in a game: 59 minutes, 20 seconds.

The loss marked the sixth blown double-digit lead for the Ravens in the last two seasons, a league high. One of the most memorable came in Week 2 of last season against the Miami Dolphins, when Tua Tagovailoa threw four touchdowns in the fourth quarter to erase a 21-point hole. The losses haven't become less painful for Baltimore -- they had a 97.8% chance of winning, per the metric, in that one.

From 1998-2021, the Ravens blew one 15-point lead. They've done so three times in the past two seasons.

In the times they haven't, the losses have been uncharacteristic. A blocked punt in the end zone returned for a touchdown against Pittsburgh was the game-changing play in the Ravens' Week 5 loss to the Steelers this season. Two weeks earlier, kicker Justin Tucker missed a potential game-winning field goal from 61 yards away against the Colts. The future Hall of Famer is 1-for-5 on kicks from more than 50 yards this season, including an attempt that was blocked against the Browns.

"We did not play well enough," head coach John Harbaugh said Sunday. "We did not play the kind of winning football that we need to play to win a game like that."

It's been a problem for Baltimore for some time.